Monday, April 8, 2013
After the lousy US March employment data (gain of only 88k) ...
After the lousy US March employment data (gain of only 88k) and slight
dip in unemployment rate to 7.6%, we saw a rally in commodities on
Friday. The rise in commodities was a result of the weakening US dollar
and traders stopping out of
their short positions. With the recent declines in gold (second quarter
over quarter decline) and silver (20% decline into bear market
territory), traders were piled into the short side of the trade. It will
be difficult for industrial metals (PT, PD, and
AG) to climb out of their recent declines without a major pickup in
global economies, especially China. Chinese government continues to cool
their housing markets as bubbles are forming in secondary and tertiary
cities around China. The Bank of Japan decided
last week that they will take their last stand against deflation by
entering into unprecedented bond buying frenzy in trying to achieve an
inflation target of 2%. The BOJ continues to be follower of the US FED
and ECB when it comes to bond buying without regards
for the risk and reward of these programs. After years of QE, US
economy is growing at an anemic pace with stubbornly high unemployment
rate and European economies are in recessions, so what can the Japanese
be expecting? It is increasingly a race to devalue
global currencies to try to compete for the dwindling global business.
European austerity plans are also causing painful economic contractions.
We have entered a point of no return in the global QE strategy, now the
question comes when can global economies
stand on its own without stimulus… can we all live within our means
even if it means we can only afford Hyundai and not BMW?
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