Thursday, July 11, 2013
Markets have been trading on every piece of news relating to QE and speculation on
Markets have been trading on every piece of news relating to QE and
speculation on when the US FED will taper or stop the bond purchasing
program. Bernanke further confused the market yesterday when he
reiterated the Fed’s intent to keep
the bonding purchasing program for the foreseeable future until there
is significant improvement in the labor market. The Fed meeting minutes
from the June FOMC meeting showed that many members want to see a
reduction of QE before the end of this year if the
US economy is able to sustain the recovery. A lot of traders were
caught short in the commodities and Bernanke’s remarks sparked a short
covering rally late yesterday afternoon and today. The higher than
expected weekly initial jobless (360k vs. 344k last
week) and continuing claims (2977k vs. 2953k last week) data further
showed the stubbornly weak employment situation. Metals are trading and
trying to hold some key levels: silver broke above $20 and is trying to
hold that level, platinum is slightly above
$1400 and holding, palladium traded above $725 but was not able to hold
there, and gold failed to break above $1300. China slowdown/shift of
their economic focus towards consumption, and potential banking issues
there will continue to drag down the global
economy and cast a doubt about the near term outlook. Unrest in the
Middle East will keep oil prices high and hamper global recovery. We
expect the debate about bond purchasing programs to rage on globally and
throughout the summer. Thanks and have a wonderful
day.
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