Friday, April 27, 2012
During the last three sessions we have seen an gold make an interesting move
During the last three sessions we have seen an gold make an interesting
move. It has traded from a low of $1625 to a high of $1662. The sell
off yesterday came on the back of the release of Fed minutes, however
the initial losses were
entirely retraced by the end of the session. The “fed-speak” reiterated
that they would continue to keep short term rates low until late 2014
in order to offer continued support for economic growth. While traders
were looking for a hints of the extension of
operation twist or another round of QE to help gold regain its bullish
accent, it seems that the prospect of low rates coupled with the ongoing
Euro zone debt issues has help to move it to the upside. In addition,
the higher than expected jobless claims helped
put a bid under the market today. At the moment gold is trading
slightly below a down trend line at $1663.90. Today’s move gave gold
bulls the hope that this trade will not go down without a fight. Should
gold trade through and close above the resistance near
$1664 tomorrow, we will most likely see a move back to the $1685 -$1700
range. From a bears perspective, there are significant technical
signals that this upside move may just be a short term trend. The
charts show a bearish pennant formation which may result
in a selloff in the yellow metal. If this selloff is extended beyond a
few sessions we will see the 50DMA cross below the 100DMA once again.
This is an incredibly bearish signal is known to technicians as the
“death cross.” Today we have US GDP and consumer
confidence #’s coming out, which could cause moves in the metals
markets.
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