Friday, May 5, 2017
Today’s impressive sounding positive employment numbers were not really as positive as the first glance reflected
Today’s impressive sounding positive employment numbers were not really as positive as the first glance reflected. Labor Force participation was lowered which automatically improves the Unemployment rate. The precious metal’s market knee jerk reaction was down but quickly recovered but as yet has not recovered all the loss. Like a scratched record I repeat the precious metals remain under pressure. The news to watch is this Sunday’s French elections. All the media is promoting a Macron win making traders comfortable with their current precious metals positions. An upset would change everything.
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
President Trump’s tax plan is a key focus today as pundits babble on about what is in it without actually having all the facts. Two key points I have read is a significant cut to corporate/business operating taxes and a cut on US Foreign earnings repatriation which is supposed to bring monies back on shore and drive more hiring and spending domestically by corporations. It will be interesting to see how it effects the debt ceiling event on Friday of this week. The French elections remain front and center and will be so until it passes May 7. As long as the market is buying a Macron expected win pressure will remain on the gold. The precious metals complex is no longer looking very bullish if gold were to trade down to the strong support level at 1245 or break lower that would signal a complete change of direction. Palladium remains the only bull in town but for now while silver is under attack.
Friday, February 3, 2017
The Federal Reserve made no changes yesterday with no indication for the future. Our focus though is no longer on the Fed now that the political landscape is changing. President Trump has intimated his concern of an overvalued dollar and is expected to take actions to address the situation. With the Fed out of the way and expectations of moves to make the US dollar weaker gold has gained old ground and appears that it will continue to try higher. A break above 1235 in the coming days could trigger a rally as high as 1275. In other news Iran test-fired a new ballistic missile which drew ire from the current US administration. This tension only adds support for safe-haven buying. The rest of the precious metals group are benefitting from the gold move.
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
Happy New Year it is for the long palladium traders. It’s up another $30 today and seems unstoppable.
Happy New Year it is for the long palladium traders. It’s up another $30 today and seems unstoppable. But truth be told the short selling that brought down the price was much heavier in volume than the light buying that is buoying the price now. This may be a sign that longs established at current levels may be at risk of failure. Gold is nowhere in comparison to palladium but it is still in bullish territory and looks to have more upside potential. The weakness of the European economy and the much favored US dollar will continue to hold gold to the upside. Today’s Federal Open Market Committee Minutes are probably the least important we have seen in the last six months. With 3 Fed presidents leaving and being replaced by what are considered more dovish persons, the questions will be, how often will they raise rates and what they may intimate about the possible Trump Presidency future influence on the economy. No surprise are expected so current upward trends are likely to prevail in the precious metals group.
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
Yesterday saw the gold market act like a see-saw. Gold is essentially range bound at the moment but still with a downward tendency. Platinum continues to look good and may finally be trying to make a stride to the upside. There may be some support coming from a possible mining strikes in Zimbabwe, the world’s third largest producer. Meanwhile silver looks poised to test $17 today on nothing other than good demand possibly a higher US trade deficit is driving more interest for some safe haven buying. Yet without any more relevant news to push the commodities we expect that any rallies will be met with fierce selling ahead of the Fed Rate Decision next week.
Monday, October 3, 2016
Platinum is the leader today but not in a good way. The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) signed a 2- year wage agreement with Impala Platinum Limited (Refineries) ending the threat of strike that was hanging around in the background. That news along with slipping auto sales numbers out of the USA put a damper on the prospect of higher prices for this white metals and selling began. AT first it seemed like the whole group was going to falter. Then the very weak Construction Spending data came out -.7% and the previous month revised downward as well which added concern of continued weakness showing in the US economy. This has supported gold and silver tagged along for an albeit small recovery form the day’s lows. The news today was not good for the platinum group metals. But even worse the fact that it hit during Rosh Hashanah while many of our many colleagues are out celebrating has caused extreme moves during this time of lower liquidity. It seems to this observer that todays move just may be a little overdone.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Heavy gold selling this morning has spread the contagion into the other metals. Platinum is suffering the most down over 1.6% with silver right on its tail. Meanwhile palladium is behaving like a rock and not moving at all. Market behavior today is very odd as the bond market is higher indicating a belief of lower interest rates to come and Consumer Confidence is reported higher adding pressure to the group. Meanwhile the Case-Schiller Home Price Index was slightly lower than expected and continues to indicate a weak Real Estate market. The gold chart is still holding in bullish territory which may be a signal that this may be a better deal than Filene’s basement. The drop seems to be losing its momentum in gold meanwhile platinum and silver look to be on weak legs. Might be a good idea to sit back and wait for the volatility to slow.
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate at -.1% as expected. This leaves the Federal Reserve room if in fact they believe the US economy is strong enough for a rate hike. Recent economic data however would tend to indicate that this afternoon we are unlikely to see any change from the current base. Ahead of the afternoon’s announcement we are seeing steady buying in the precious metals sector. Silver and palladium are making strides to the upside and silver looks like it is getting ready to target its next resistance level to the upside of 20.12 while palladium will need a close above 687 to pave the way back over the 700 level. Platinum is also looking to follow and try to regain a foothold above the 1100 price level. Gold the much more liquid and less volatile of the group will likely continue the party by testing as high as 1367 if it closes above 1334 today. However all this goes out the window if the Fed makes a move at its announcement at 2 PM EST.
Monday, September 19, 2016
The precious metals markets are recovering from Friday’s sell off. Of the most significant is Palladium which is up over 2.5% and looking very firm though there is no extra-fundamental news . After having hit what a appeared to be a rock bottom price of 650 last week it has turned around and if it closes above 687 today will represent technically a turn around. Gold has been holding above the 100 day moving average of 1306 and may target 1324 in the near future. Of course the market is still waiting for the Fed’s rate decision this Wednesday. But of almost equal importance will be the Bank of Japan’s announcement on Tuesday evening 11PM EST. If BOJ were to lower it may be another signal that the Fed may not be able to move anytime soon.
Monday, August 15, 2016
BULLION COINS VS. COLLECTIBLE COINS
A bullion coin is a miniature store of wealth whose value is determined by the current price of its precious metals content. A collectible coin is a coin that has additional perceived features above its precious metals content that escapes the notice of others such as: a rare date, mint mark, condition, pedigree or something else that distinguishes it in the mind of the buyer as having extra value. This perceived extra value is known as its numismatic value. While the bullion value of a coin is limited to a small transactional charge above or below the current price of its precious metals content, the numismatic value of a coin is limitless.
A good example of limitless numismatic value is the 1933 $20 Saint-Gaudens double eagle which, is one of the rarest coins in the world. The coin sold at auction in 2002 for $7.5 million.
The bullion melt value, also known as the intrinsic value is $1,280.84!