Friday, March 20, 2015
No news today of import and precious metals are still testing to the upside. Though recent comments by the Fed were gold bullish the market is still confident on the US economy so they are cautious on putting on a gold long position. Still we can expect attempts to test a 1190 with a target of 1210 for the gold price. The rest of the complex should benefit on any upward mobility but for now the train seems to need some more coal in the caboose before this train gets moving.
Monday, March 16, 2015
All the attention this week is on Wednesday’s Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement. Today’s statistics, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were weaker than expected but the bears still hold out the confidence that the Fed will change their statement to remove the word “patient”. Removing the word patient will indicate to the bears that interest rates will be raised at the June meeting. But will they use another word to befuddle the market? For now the precious metals have seemed to found a bottom but remain under constant pressure. As the bears sell into rallies they have not been able to complete a total rout of all support levels. Expect precious metals to continue to make attempts to the upside but without any real impetus, as the Greek crisis has been sidelined, for the time being it will be difficult to see any break out from current ranges.
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Netanyahu’s call for tough action against Iran had little effect on the market or the sitting president of the USA. In fact it was received as a ho-hum event by not only the US president but the Iranians as well. Today’s Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics came out higher than expected which was quickly jumped on by bears as a bullish signal for the economy driving gold down below the 1200 price this morning and the whole precious metals group followed suit. Is this number that significant to warrant the reaction? Probably not and expectations are for it to recover and settle back above 1205 today. If it settles lower, then the bears will have weekend the support and the direction may change. For now the real focus will be the Unemployment numbers coming out Friday.
Monday, January 19, 2015
The precious metals markets remain strong this morning and still appears to be in bullish territory. It is most likely we will continue to see attempts at going higher in gold towards the next resistance of 1308. Supporting the market is foremost the Euro’ identity crisis. Once thought to be a safe haven currency, after the Swiss National Bank debacle of last week and the impending Greek elections that are expected to further undermine its presence in global portfolios, it’s not clear what is next. Additionally, quantitative easing is expected to be the tool most likely to be implemented by the ECB which will continue to undermine its position. The news to watch this week will be, first the overnight report out of China on their GDP and more importantly the ECB’s policy statement on Thursday. Today is Martin Luther King Day in the USA. Banks, Government offices and the stock market is closed. Don’t expect much activity either way today.
Monday, January 5, 2015
The start of the first full week of 2015 is here. This Monday is ringing it in with a bang as the Euro drops below $1.20 to as low as $1.1876. The driver against the Euro is in no small way concerns that the extreme left leaning party in Greece may take control in elections later this month. If they do the belief is twofold that Greece may leave the EU and that they may end austerity measures and not honor previous agreements. On this news funds have also been driven into the gold market driving it back up to the 1200 price level. Precious metals are all green across the board as investment money seeks alternative to Euro based assets. Additionally, US Car sales reports out this morning for the month of December rose topping off a strong year. This will give continued fundamental support to the Platinum group metals. It would appear that we can expect the precious metals to hold current price levels or go higher as the bears for now are in hiding due to the “Grexit” (Greek Exit from EU) threat.
Monday, December 8, 2014
Friday’s very positive US Non-Farm Payrolls up a strong 321,000- surprised the market and rove gold down below $1200 dollars to a low of about 1186 in the spot market. Bears however did not come out to party as may have been expected. With the positive to news driving the US dollar Index to its highest level since 2009 expectations may have been to see gold falter. However, with Central bank’s such as ECB, BOJ and even possibly the PBOC instituting their own quantitative easing in the near future shorts are hard to find. In fact December 2nd CFTC report shows that gold short have declined 28%. Additionally, many traders will be waiting to see the news out of the Euro Zone this Thursday about the use of the ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO). The data will give a strong indication of when the ECB will be instituting their QE program. A lower than expected number will indicate a need to do so sooner. The PGM’s have been holding their ground in price but rhodium after having lost 6,000 ounces of holdings in the ETF is trading down to 1165. In the USA the only economic number of major importance to watch this week is Retail Sales to be released on Friday.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Nothing has happened over the weekend. The world is expecting easing out of Europe and Japan with lower interest rates in China the investment money looks for better returns. At this juncture those returns are found in US dollar based investments. This keeps the US dollar in a strong position and maintains downward pressure on gold and silver in the face of bullish indicators. Platinum and palladium are also under the same pressure and technically they look oversold. Yet for the bulls to see an upward momentum to push these markets out of the doldrums it will take a significantly powerful catalyst. No US data today of real import, GDP tomorrow and Durable Goods report on Wednesday. Expect this week to be very quiet ahead of Thanksgiving day holiday in the USA.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Gold took off this morning booming over 1200 on the news of the dissolution Japan’s lower house of Parliament
Gold took off this morning booming over 1200 on the news of the dissolution Japan’s lower house of Parliament by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The shock of yesterday’s slip into recession by one of the largest economies in the world shocked the Prime Minister as much a s the world. His actions indicate that he is gathering support to continue the country’s easing policies which was the wind behind the sale of the precious metals markets this morning. Unfortunately for gold longs, the yellow metal was not able to hold above the 1200, after a positive Economic Sentiment report in Europe was much higher than expected, which does not bode well for higher prices. The metals though holding ground of late does not seem to have enough strength to enter its former charge to the upside any time soon. Bank of Japan’s rate decision is not expected to surprise overnight. Tomorrow’s FOMC report is the next news to watch.
Thursday, November 13, 2014
The precious metals market continues to be very quiet. Even with the Russian/Ukraine conflict news making headlines again it appears unlikely that the market will be stirred out of its doldrums. The Chinese Industrial production number came out less than expected indicating a bit of a slowdown but this number is not enough to directly affect the precious metals markets. Today’s US jobs data were close to expectations making no waves. Tomorrow’s EU Gross Domestic Product and the US Retail Sales numbers should give better direction.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
U.S. Mint Sells out of 2014 Silver Eagles
The United States Mint has announced that due to the tremendous demand they have temporarily sold out of American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. “We continue to produce 2014-dated coins and will advise you when additional inventory will be available for sale." Said Michael White. The Royal Canadian Mint made a similar statement last week regarding their one ounce Maple Leaf coins. The current shortage in the market will most likely lead to higher premiums. Higher premiums and product shipment delays often leads to a pick up in the sale of Silver Bullion Rounds, which have lower premiums and faster delivery.
Privately minted silver coins are commonly called "silver rounds" or "generic silver rounds". These coins usually have a set weight of 1 troy ounce of silver (31.103 grams of 99.9% silver). These carry all sorts of designs, from assayer/mine backed bullion to engravable gifts, automobiles, firearms, armed forces commemorative, holidays, etc.
Some hard money enthusiasts use .999 fine silver rounds as a store of value. A cross between bars and coins, silver rounds are produced by a huge array of mints, generally contain a troy ounce of silver in the shape of a coin, but have no status as legal tender. Rounds can be ordered with a custom design stamped on the faces or in assorted batches.