Tuesday, September 23, 2014
An air attack on ISIS in Syria by allied forces caused gold to spike on safe haven demand. Yet it was short lived as the world is now used to this constant geopolitical angst and is more concerned with economic news. Fed Governor Kocherlakota intimated that inflation will remain low and that they will be cautious about raising rates. This tone is not really a strong signal in either direction and will still keep gold bugs at bay. Positive news out of China as their Manufacturing Index beat estimates at 50.50 gives an overall positive signal for the continued improvement of the world economies. The recent upward move has not changed overall trajectory as yet and only the PGMs will find some support on recent news, due to their demand for catalyst in the exhaust systems, from the automotive sector which is doing well in all markets.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
Yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement was no surprise but staying on the same path still means lower for precious metals.
Yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement was no surprise but staying on the same path still means lower for precious metals. The metal leading the way on this downward direction is still the gold which is under the financial pressure of the strengthening US dollar. Technical indicators though are signaling an oversold condition in silver and gold will soon be there. This may cause a turn in the current downward trend. Additionally a NO vote on the Scottish referendum may have a positive effect on the British pound maybe taking some wind out of the US dollar sails. Housing Starts report this morning was weaker than expected but not weak enough to change the view on the economy.
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Little to report this morning as it was no surprise to most people that watch the market that gold succumbed to downward pressure yesterday
Little to report this morning as it was no surprise to most people that watch the market that gold succumbed to downward pressure yesterday and the rest of the precious metals group followed. Even palladium has suffered from the recent short side selling. But more telltale signs may be the abandonment of investors from the gold market as seen in Bloomberg ETF report with a decline in the past month of 18.5 tons. The market will most likely remain under pressure as the US Dollar surges in strength on the recent positive economic outlook and the belief that the US economy will continue to improve. As mentioned yesterday the Retail Sales number on Friday will be an important indicator of things to come. Tomorrow’s release from China about their Consumer Price Index should be watched as well.
Thursday, September 4, 2014
The precious metals group is all in the green across the board this morning. Doubts of any peace settlement brokered by Russia for the Ukraine has grown and the market has taken that into account, more so though for the price palladium. However the bigger influence on prices overall are the ECB rate decision down to .05% from .15% and the announcement of their own version of QE which is to begin in October. The ADP Payroll report was lower than expected at 204k. The ISM Manufacturing number for August was better than expected compensating any negative sentiment for the US dollar after the ADP report. However we can expect to see a quiet day for precious metals ahead of the Unemployment Data for the US which will be released tomorrow morning.
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Yesterday was a very quiet day in the market. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine look like they should keep a damper on any attempts to the upside for gold but there is still no confidence that there will be any success. Concerns that the ECB will begin a more expansive monetary policy has raised demand for the yellow metal this morning driving the price higher. Finally the positive Consumer Confidence combined with the jump in Durable Goods report this morning up 22.6% will certainly keep gold from any substantial rally. The positive US numbers are supportive for demand of the more industrial aspects of Pt, Pd and Ag.. Palladium remains firm in the face of the Ukraine and Russian talks which may be an indication of what confidence level for peaceful resolution to a conflict that has seen over 2,000 deaths to date.
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
Retail Sales report due out tomorrow is probably the most important number to come out this week. Even if it is better than expected will it be a drag on the gold price? It is doubtful considering that a stronger dollar combined with a strong equity market has not been able to do so. The global political crisis is what is holding gold above the 1300 level and the situations are not going away any time soon. Gold looks to be firmly in the bull camp for now and may lead the way higher if tensions in the Ukraine or Iraq escalate.
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
The US dollar is dictating market gyrations in the precious metals at the moment. This morning’s very good GDP (gross domestic product) coming in a 4% has strengthened demand for all US Investments. When the announcement came out the precious metals got whacked and went lower but it was short lived as very few people want to be short gold against the current geopolitical backdrop. Does gold have significant downside? If there is a peace agreement in the Mideast and a solution to the Russia/Ukraine conflict yes, otherwise we can expect buys on any big dips. However the rest of the group Silver, Platinum and Palladium all benefit in fundamental consumer demand on a positive improving global economy. However Japan reported a weaker GDP and Spain also had a weaker than expected figure, the global economy is not out of the woods quite yet. More importantly though will be this afternoon’s Federal Reserve rate decision and policy statement to be released at 2 pm. Gold has support at 1287/61, silver 20.25/03, platinum 1472/61 with resistance at 1488/91. Palladium has support 875/71 and resistance at 885/88.
Next Big US News Day; Friday- Unemployment rate, Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Gold and silver continued to be well supported by the global political tensions. There is no doubt it will stay this way for the foreseeable future as there are not any solutions for these conflicts at the moment. The metals may attempt to the upside but traders will be hesitant ahead of the GDP number, Fed Decision tomorrow and Non-Farm payrolls on Friday. The PGMs are suffering from the same lackluster direction and will stay in range for the same reasons. Today’s US Consumer Confidence number came out 90.9 which is strong and should continue to keep the metals subdued. Gold will find resistance at 1314 and support 1301, silver will continue to find resistance at 20.80 level. Platinum will find resistance at 1492/95 and support is 1472. Palladium has support at 873 and resistance at 889.
Monday, July 28, 2014
The bears ran out of steam on Friday which forced the shorts to cover driving the price of gold higher.
The bears ran out of steam on Friday which forced the shorts to cover driving the price of gold higher. The inability of the shorts to get the yellow metal to break below 1286 had them turning tail. The ability to go above the 1300 number is psychologically bullish but gold will need more fundamental support to keep it above this price. The rest of the precious metals complex of course has benefitted as well. The PGMs may also be benefitting more so on the news of further sanctions out of Europe on Russia which keeps raising concerns of supply risk into the future. The Net Longs on Pt futures are exceptionally high and could tempt profit takers but the continued growth of the Pt ETFs now at 2.878 mm ounces continues to add support. This afternoons release of the FOMC minutes of the last meetings are certain to be an important focus of the markets in general. Gold has resistance at 1309 and support at 1301, silver resistance 20.80, platinum has support 1472 and resistance 1488/92, Pd has resistance at 888/892.
Friday, July 25, 2014
It appears that the precious metals market has put on the brakes to the downside. It may be that the New Home Sales numbers in the US were more than lackluster and surprised many yesterday. But this morning’s US Durable Goods Order report was much better than expected at up +.70% boosting confidence in the US economy and keeping a damper on any possible attempt to the upside for the gold market. Silver, platinum and palladium which have greater industrial consumption may have the ability to gain more to the upside on this data. With the global economy moving in a positive direction and the discounting of the geopolitical crisis, we will likely see on this Friday sideways price action for the complex. Gold has support at 1291 and resistance 1301, silver 20.18 support and resistance 21.08. Platinum has support 1463 and resistance 1483. Palladium has support 865 and resistance 882