Monday, April 27, 2015
Excitement hits the precious metals market this morning as gold climbs from 1185 before 10 am to set the LBMA PM gold price at 1200-. This was preceded by silver making an upward move that may have been perceived to be directed by the poor Markit Services PMI report which missed the mark 1.2 coming in at 57.8, and right fully so indicating that Friday’s Durable Goods report though mixed may be showing signs of weakness. Yet a report by Reuters Friday announces a $1bn gold swap between Venezuela and Citibank which to many traders may be where the unending pressure on the gold market may have been coming from. With that report in tow traders may have felt that the news allows them to change direction and put on new longs. The upward move of course triggers stops making the precious metals climb higher on the move. Today’s settlement prices on the metals are important to clarify whether this is a short term blip or a new trend to the upside is developing. This week’s news to watch for are the FOMC report and Gross Domestic Product both out on Wednesday.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
Is there really a rebound on the way for the US economy? That is the question that is constantly dogging the precious metals market while traders have their ears perked for any positive sign that may direct the Fed to raise interest rates. This morning group was trading much higher than currently on concerns of Greek default. It is obviously less of a concern for the US investor as they quickly dumped metals on the back of an better than expected Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. Oddly enough, that was the only truly positive indicator versus what others believe are more important numbers such as Housing Starts, Building Permits and Jobless claims which did little to reaffirm a positive US economy. Where is the rebound? It is in the positive attitude of US business but numbers of late don’t prove it out. The continued underwhelming indicators balanced against the European economic and political back drop leaves the metals trading in current ranges. Unless gold the leader of the group breaks above 1225 we won’t be discussing any major bullish price direction. Tomorrows Consumer Price Index report might be a catalyst to end the doldrums if it shows any major divergence.
Thursday, April 9, 2015
Yesterday’s Federal Reserve announcement was mixed which leaves the market status quo. This has led to downward pressure on the precious metals market. Silver has had the biggest negative reaction trading as low as 16.14 and currently trading 16.21. Silver is down 6% on the week which is either a signal of more to come in the rest of the group or a good buying opportunity for the silver consumers. It almost appears as if the Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls never happened. Todays’ weekly Jobless claims report was slightly better than expectations but not an important factor to shape expectations, unless you are on television and selling the perception that everything is better than the recent more important figures convey. Technically the group looks weak and will remain under pressure. We are back to expecting downward moves to test lower price levels that will be short lived. For the US based market no important economic report is due until next week when we will have the US Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Due to the holidays and Spring Break the market have been very slow . The precious metals market received a boost on Friday when Non-Farm Payrolls missed the target by a wide margin. Off at almost 50% less than expectations with lower participation rates you would think that we would see a weaker dollar. However the market believes that all this means is that the Fed will still raise rates only later than sooner. This makes the US dollar and its equities markets the best looking when compare with other markets. After the initial boost which saw gold trade as high as 1225 the metals have seemed to hit a wall and come off due to a stronger US dollar. For today do not expect much action and expect sideways trading for the rest of the day.