Friday, March 27, 2015
The Yemen news yesterday gave a short lived pop to gold. But yet there is something else going. In Asia gold traded as high as 1206. In London and NY it has traded above 1200 only to retreat. Today’s fourth quarter GDP report was a little higher but the annualized was lower than expected which should have been bullish for gold. Reuter’s Michigan Consumer sentiment was slightly higher than expected causing a net zero effect on market direction. The precious metals complex remains under the gun from the expectations of higher interest rates, futures shorts and ETF liquidations. But in the battle of direction it does not seem that shorts hold all the cards as every good dip has been met by buying. The question is who will tire first, the bulls or the bears before a new direction is made clear when the dust finally settles.
Friday, March 20, 2015
No news today of import and precious metals are still testing to the upside. Though recent comments by the Fed were gold bullish the market is still confident on the US economy so they are cautious on putting on a gold long position. Still we can expect attempts to test a 1190 with a target of 1210 for the gold price. The rest of the complex should benefit on any upward mobility but for now the train seems to need some more coal in the caboose before this train gets moving.
Monday, March 16, 2015
All the attention this week is on Wednesday’s Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement. Today’s statistics, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were weaker than expected but the bears still hold out the confidence that the Fed will change their statement to remove the word “patient”. Removing the word patient will indicate to the bears that interest rates will be raised at the June meeting. But will they use another word to befuddle the market? For now the precious metals have seemed to found a bottom but remain under constant pressure. As the bears sell into rallies they have not been able to complete a total rout of all support levels. Expect precious metals to continue to make attempts to the upside but without any real impetus, as the Greek crisis has been sidelined, for the time being it will be difficult to see any break out from current ranges.
Thursday, March 5, 2015
Netanyahu’s call for tough action against Iran had little effect on the market or the sitting president of the USA. In fact it was received as a ho-hum event by not only the US president but the Iranians as well. Today’s Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics came out higher than expected which was quickly jumped on by bears as a bullish signal for the economy driving gold down below the 1200 price this morning and the whole precious metals group followed suit. Is this number that significant to warrant the reaction? Probably not and expectations are for it to recover and settle back above 1205 today. If it settles lower, then the bears will have weekend the support and the direction may change. For now the real focus will be the Unemployment numbers coming out Friday.