Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Yesterday’s Consumer Confidence Index was slightly lower than expectations with a reading of 82.3. The strike is now in its fourteenth week and still no solution has been reached. The Platinum producers have been trying to make offers to their employees through local radio stations, text messages, e-mails and other forms of communication. The Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union has kindly asked the producers not to bypass the union as employees will not directly assent to any negotiated offers. At this point it looks like any signs of a resolution being reached before the national elections on May 7th is highly unlikely. According to the ADP report, Private Sector Employment for April is up 220,000 vs. consensus of 210,000 with the most jobs added to the construction sector. The stronger than expected nonfarm employment change dropped gold prices by $10 which rebounded moments later after the first quarter’s GDP figure was reported to be much weaker than predicted up .1% vs. expectations of 1.2%. Stay tuned for the release of the FOMC Statement at 2:00 pm. Have a great day.
Monday, April 28, 2014
The tensions in Ukraine are giving gold support which is trading in the $1300 range this morning as the U.S. is expected to step up sanctions against Russia later today. The Russian troops continue their military exercises on Ukraine’s borders inclining fears of further possible takeovers. Still no solution between the Platinum producers and the AMCU. At this point it looks like the producers are going to take their wage offers directly to their employees bypassing the union. Anglo, Impala, and Lonmin’s latest offer to the union is to give them the desired R 12,500 a month by July 2017. Stay tuned for Pending Home Sale numbers coming out at 10:00 a.m. Have a great day!
Friday, April 25, 2014
What a day it was yesterday for the shiny yellow metal which started the morning trading $15 on the downside
What a day it was yesterday for the shiny yellow metal which started the morning trading $15 on the downside to as low as 1268.40 and reversing its course reaching a high of 1299 for the day. Gold continues to see some support this morning by the instability in Ukraine. Five Russian rebels were killed yesterday by Ukrainian forces further escalating tensions between the two groups. There is very limited news today, however, next week we will see plenty of economic data beginning with Pending Home Sales on Monday, Consumer Confidence numbers on Tuesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, and NFP numbers on Friday. Still no settlement between the Platinum producers and the AMCU. Have a wonderful and fun weekend!!
Thursday, April 24, 2014
What a way to start the morning with AU, AG, PT & PD all down 1.03%, 2%, .65%, and .76% respectively.
What a way to start the morning with AU, AG, PT & PD all down 1.03%, 2%, .65%, and .76% respectively. Yesterday’s New Home Sales figure missed expectations by 14.7% with a reading of 384,000 vs. the forecast of 450,000. Simply put, home prices are just too high! Core Durable Goods Orders for March are up 2% vs. expectations of .6%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 4/19 are up 24,000 with a figure of 329,000. The Platinum producers and the Association of Mineworkers Construction Union are scheduled to meet again in hopes to come to a solution. Something must be cooking as this is the third day of discussion between the two groups. Have a great day!!!
Wednesday, April 23, 2014
After yesterday’s Existing Home Sales figures were better than expected with a reading of 4.59M vs. expectations of 4.55M, gold prices dipped closing at 1281.10 for June delivery. Any positive economic data at this point is bearish for gold as this indicates that the Fed will continue tapering. The preliminary Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI was pretty much in line with expectations with a reading of 48.3 signaling an economy that continues to be in contraction. Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium are trading in the green zone this morning up .54%, .70%, .24%, and .20% respectively. Gold prices are up 7.1% for the year based on the political tensions in Ukraine which fueled demand for the safe haven asset. The three Platinum producers came up with a revised offer for the AMCU, however it does not meet the union’s demands. Talks to end the longest and most expensive strike in South Africa will resume today. New Home Sales will be released today at 10:00 am! Have a great day.
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
We should see some more activity in the markets today as everyone has returned from Easter weekend. The precious metals market is trading on the upside this morning with Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium up roughly .23%, .64%, .53%, and 1.07% respectively. Palladium prices took a hit yesterday amid expectations of a negotiation being reached in South Africa. Palladium futures for June delivery settled $29.30 lower yesterday at 777.80. The three PT producers and the Association of Mineworkers Construction Union will meet today to discuss revised wages. People are anxious for this strike to be over as this has been the longest and most exorbitant strike the South African mines have ever experienced. Stay tuned for New Home Sales at 10:00 am! Have a delightful day.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Yesterday was tax day and gold prices tumbled significantly to as low as 1284.40 for June futures. A year from yesterday prices were down roughly 9%. Headlines in China about 1,000 tonnes of AU being tied in financing spooked the markets pulling down prices for AU, AG, PT, and PD throughout the day. According to the World Gold Council, the Chinese markets have an appetite for physical AU such as bars and coins as a form of savings and thus, demand will most likely increase by 19% when we enter 2017. Chinese GDP hit a 2 year low of 7.4%, but was still above expectations of 7.3%. Palladium prices were down yesterday with June futures trading as low as 786.50. The PD sponge situation remains the same as people continue to hoard the metal. Building Permits figure for March is .990M vs. February’s result of 1.014M. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report will be released at 2:00 pm today. Have a lovely day.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
The political unrest in Ukraine helped boost gold prices on Monday with June futures closing at 1327.50.
The political unrest in Ukraine helped boost gold prices on Monday with June futures closing at 1327.50. Although the uncertainty is favorable for AU, several analysts are waiting for the demand for the safe haven asset to fizzle out. The tightness in the Palladium markets continue amid tensions in Ukraine and the ongoing strike in South Africa. The precious metal markets are trading in the red zone across the board this morning. A stronger U.S. dollar and profit taking is putting pressure on gold prices in addition to a report by the World Gold Council which indicated that China’s demand for gold will be limited this year due to the vast consumption in 2013. Silver prices are being dragged by the gold and is trading approximately 3.3% on the downside this morning. We see intensified long liquidation in Palladium as the metal broke below $800. CPI for March is up .2% vs. expectations of .1%. Have a great day!
Monday, April 14, 2014
Palladium made a new high at $814.20 as supply concerns continue to escalate and is up roughly 14% for the year.
Palladium made a new high at $814.20 as supply concerns continue to escalate and is up roughly 14% for the year. Tensions in Ukraine and expectations that interest rates will continue to stay low have been supporting gold prices at these levels. The Fed’s March minutes clarified that interest rates will not rise substantially after quantitative easing is over as the markets had previously expected. Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs continue to remain bearish on gold as they believe this rally is temporary. Core Retail Sales for March are up .7% vs. expectations of .5%. Have a wonderful day.
Friday, April 4, 2014
Yesterday’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI result of 53.1 was close to forecasts of 53.5. This figure indicates that the non-manufacturing sector of the economy is generally expanding. The metals markets are trading on the upside early this morning ahead of the NFP and unemployment numbers. Nonfarm Payroll numbers for March are up 192,000 vs. expectations of 200,000 and the unemployment rate remains at 6.7%. We saw gold break above 1300 on the screens amid the weaker than expected jobs report and slightly come off moments later. Gold and silver are trading on the upside as weaker than forecasted economic data signals that perhaps the Fed won’t hike rates earlier than expected. Have a wonderful weekend!