Friday’s very positive US Non-Farm Payrolls up a strong 321,000- surprised the market

Friday’s very positive US Non-Farm Payrolls up a strong 321,000- surprised the market and rove gold down below $1200 dollars to a low of about 1186 in the spot market. Bears however did not come out to party as may have been expected. With the positive to news driving the US dollar Index to its highest level since 2009 expectations may have been to see gold falter. However, with Central bank’s such as ECB, BOJ and even possibly the PBOC instituting their own quantitative easing in the near future shorts are hard to find. In fact December 2^nd CFTC report shows that gold short have declined 28%. Additionally, many traders will be waiting to see the news out of the Euro Zone this Thursday about the use of the ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO). The data will give a strong indication of when the ECB will be instituting their QE program. A lower than expected number will indicate a need to do so sooner. The PGM’s have been holding their ground in price but rhodium after having lost 6,000 ounces of holdings in the ETF is trading down to 1165. In the USA the only economic number of major importance to watch this week is Retail Sales to be released on Friday.

Nothing has happened over the weekend.

Nothing has happened over the weekend. The world is expecting easing out of Europe and Japan with lower interest rates in China the investment money looks for better returns. At this juncture those returns are found in US dollar based investments. This keeps the US dollar in a strong position and maintains downward pressure on gold and silver in the face of bullish indicators. Platinum and palladium are also under the  same pressure and technically they look oversold. Yet for the bulls to see an upward momentum to push these markets out of the doldrums it will take a significantly powerful catalyst. No US data today of real import, GDP tomorrow and Durable Goods report on Wednesday. Expect this week to be very quiet ahead of Thanksgiving day holiday in the USA.

Gold took off this morning booming over 1200 on the news of the dissolution Japan’s lower house of Parliament

Gold took off this morning booming over 1200 on the news of the dissolution Japan’s lower house of Parliament by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.  The shock of yesterday’s slip into recession by one of the largest economies in the world shocked the Prime Minister as much a s the world. His actions indicate that he is gathering support to continue the country’s easing policies which was the wind behind the sale of the precious metals markets this morning. Unfortunately for gold longs, the yellow metal was not able to hold above the 1200, after a positive Economic Sentiment report in Europe was much higher than expected, which does not bode well for higher prices. The metals though holding ground of late does not seem to have enough strength to enter its former charge to the upside any time soon. Bank of Japan’s rate decision is not expected to surprise overnight. Tomorrow’s FOMC report is the next news to watch.

The precious metals market continues to be very quiet

The precious metals market continues to be very quiet. Even with the Russian/Ukraine conflict news making headlines again it appears unlikely that the market will be stirred out of its doldrums. The Chinese Industrial production number came out less than expected indicating a bit of a slowdown but this number is not enough to directly affect the precious metals markets. Today’s US jobs data were close to expectations making no waves. Tomorrow’s EU Gross Domestic Product and the US Retail Sales numbers should give better direction.

U.S. Mint Sells out of 2014 Silver Eagles

 

The United States Mint has announced  that due to the tremendous demand  they  have temporarily sold out of  American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. “We continue to produce 2014-dated coins and will advise you when additional inventory will be available for sale."  Said Michael White.  The Royal Canadian Mint made a similar statement last week regarding their one ounce Maple Leaf coins. The current shortage in the market will most likely lead to higher premiums. Higher premiums and product shipment delays often leads to a pick up in the sale of Silver Bullion Rounds, which have lower premiums and faster delivery.

 

Privately minted silver coins are commonly called "silver rounds" or "generic silver rounds". These coins usually have a set weight of 1 troy ounce of silver (31.103 grams of 99.9% silver). These carry all sorts of designs, from assayer/mine backed bullion to engravable gifts, automobiles, firearms, armed forces commemorative, holidays, etc.

Some hard money enthusiasts use .999 fine silver rounds as a store of value. A cross between bars and coins, silver rounds are produced by a huge array of mints, generally contain a troy ounce of silver in the shape of a coin, but have no status as legal tender. Rounds can be ordered with a custom design stamped on the faces or in assorted batches.

American Silver Eagle Bullion Sales Surge on Lower Metal Prices

American Silver Eagle Bullion Sales Surge on Lower Metal Prices

2014 Silver Eagle Sales Surge 87.6% Compared to Year Ago Period!

With silver trading at its lowest price in four years, buyers are snapping up large quantities of the 2014 Silver Eagles. Sales were up 87.6% over the same period last year. In October the U.S. Mint sold 5,790,000, their highest monthly total for almost two years. Total sales for the year now stand at 38,041,000.

This massive 10-Kilo silver coin has been issued for the Chinese Year of the Horse.

This massive 10-Kilo silver coin has been issued for the Chinese Year of the Horse. Its massive and a real conversation piece. You get 321.50 ounces of silver! Only 200 were made, we will accept offers starting at $10,000. Please send an email with offers.

 

Platinum yesterday hit its lowest level in 3 years at $1188 per ounce

Platinum yesterday hit its lowest level in 3 years at $1188 per ounce. The rest of the precious metals group were also discounted to a level where it attracted healthy short covering, profit taking and industrial consumer demand. But the US Dollar party is not over yet and downward pressure remains even after yesterday’s rally.  Recent data out of Germany, the factory orders and industrial production, were both much lower than expected creating concern that maybe the ECB may have to do more to bolster the European economy. With that said money fleeing the European equities market will continue to bolster the US dollar but the question remains whether this will add pressure on the precious metals group or is this oversold market ready for a reversal?  Could tomorrow’s FOMC minutes report be enough to shock the precious metals market to life or will we the continual drift lower continue? These are the concerns in the precious metals market arena now. Yet a good sign amongst what has been a perpetual gloom was that yesterday’s rally showed that there are bargain hunters waiting on the sidelines for the right opportunity to come in.

An air attack on ISIS in Syria by allied forces caused gold to spike on safe haven demand.

An air attack on ISIS in Syria by allied forces caused gold to spike on safe haven demand. Yet it was short lived as the world is now used to this constant geopolitical angst and is more concerned with economic news. Fed Governor Kocherlakota intimated that inflation will remain low and that they will be cautious about raising rates. This tone is not really a strong signal in either direction and will still keep gold bugs at bay. Positive news out of China as their Manufacturing Index beat estimates at 50.50 gives an overall positive signal for the continued improvement of the world economies. The recent upward move has not changed overall trajectory as yet and only the PGMs will find some support on recent news, due to their demand for catalyst in the exhaust systems, from the automotive sector which is doing well in all markets.

Yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement was no surprise but staying on the same path still means lower for precious metals.

Yesterday’s Federal Reserve statement was no surprise but  staying on the same path still means lower for precious metals.  The metal leading the way on this downward direction is still the gold which is under the financial pressure of the strengthening US dollar. Technical indicators though are signaling an oversold condition in silver and gold will soon be there. This may cause a turn in the current downward trend. Additionally a NO vote on the Scottish referendum may have a positive effect on the British pound maybe taking some wind out of the US dollar sails. Housing Starts report this morning was weaker than expected but not weak enough to change the view on the economy.

Little to report this morning as it was no surprise to most people that watch the market that gold succumbed to downward pressure yesterday

Little to report this morning as it was no surprise to most people that watch the market that gold succumbed to downward pressure yesterday and the rest of the precious metals group followed. Even palladium has suffered from the recent short side selling. But more telltale signs may be the abandonment of investors from the gold market as seen in Bloomberg ETF report with a decline in the past month of 18.5 tons. The market will most likely remain under pressure as the US Dollar surges in strength on the recent positive economic outlook and the belief that the US economy will continue to improve. As mentioned yesterday the Retail Sales number on Friday will be an important indicator of things to come. Tomorrow’s release from China about their Consumer Price Index should be watched as well.

The precious metals group is all in the green across the board this morning.

The precious metals group is all in the green across the board this morning. Doubts of any peace settlement brokered by Russia for the Ukraine has grown and the market has taken that into account, more so though for the price palladium. However the bigger influence on prices overall are the ECB rate decision down to .05% from .15%  and the announcement of their own version of QE which is to begin in October. The ADP Payroll report was lower than expected at 204k. The ISM Manufacturing number for August was better than expected compensating any negative sentiment for the US dollar after the ADP report. However we can expect to see a quiet day for precious metals ahead of the Unemployment Data for the US which will be released tomorrow morning.

Yesterday was a very quiet day in the market.

Yesterday was a very quiet day in the market. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine look like they should keep a damper on any attempts to the upside for gold but there is still no confidence that there will be any success. Concerns that the ECB will begin a more expansive monetary policy has raised demand for the yellow metal this morning driving the price higher. Finally the positive Consumer Confidence combined with the jump in Durable Goods report this morning up 22.6% will certainly keep gold from any substantial rally. The positive US numbers are supportive for demand of  the more industrial aspects of Pt, Pd and Ag.. Palladium remains firm in the face of the Ukraine and Russian talks which may be an indication of what confidence level for peaceful resolution to a conflict that has seen over 2,000 deaths to date.

Retail Sales report due out tomorrow is probably the most important number to come out this week.

Retail Sales report due out tomorrow is probably the most important number to come out this week. Even if it is better than expected will it be a drag on the gold price? It is doubtful considering that a stronger dollar combined with a strong equity market has not been able to do so. The global political crisis is what is holding gold above the 1300 level and the situations are not going away any time soon. Gold looks to be firmly in the bull camp for now and may lead the way higher if tensions in the Ukraine or Iraq escalate.

The US dollar is dictating market gyrations in the precious metals at the moment.

The US dollar is dictating market gyrations in the precious metals at the moment. This morning’s very good GDP (gross domestic product) coming in a 4% has strengthened demand for all US Investments. When the announcement came out the precious metals got whacked and went lower but it was short lived as very few people want to be short gold against the current geopolitical backdrop. Does gold have significant downside?  If there is a peace agreement in the Mideast and a solution to the Russia/Ukraine conflict yes, otherwise we can expect buys on any big dips. However the rest of the group Silver, Platinum and Palladium all benefit in fundamental consumer demand on a positive improving global economy. However Japan reported a weaker GDP and Spain also had a weaker than expected figure, the global economy is not out of the woods quite yet. More importantly though will be this afternoon’s Federal Reserve rate decision and policy statement to be released at 2 pm.  Gold has support at 1287/61, silver 20.25/03, platinum 1472/61 with resistance at 1488/91. Palladium has support 875/71 and resistance at 885/88.

 

Next Big US News Day; Friday- Unemployment rate, Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing

Gold and silver continued to be well supported by the global political tensions.

Gold and silver continued to be well supported by the global political tensions. There is no doubt it will stay this way for the foreseeable future as there are not any solutions for these conflicts at the moment.  The metals may attempt to the upside but traders will be hesitant ahead of the GDP number, Fed Decision tomorrow and Non-Farm payrolls on Friday. The PGMs are suffering from the same lackluster direction and will stay in range for the same reasons. Today’s US Consumer Confidence number came out 90.9 which is strong and should continue to keep the metals subdued.  Gold will find resistance at 1314 and support 1301, silver will continue to find resistance at 20.80 level. Platinum will find resistance at 1492/95 and support is 1472. Palladium has support at 873 and resistance at 889.

The bears ran out of steam on Friday which forced the shorts to cover driving the price of gold higher.

The bears ran out of steam on Friday which forced the shorts to cover driving the price of gold higher. The inability of the shorts to get the yellow metal to break below 1286 had them turning tail. The ability to go above the 1300 number is psychologically bullish but gold will need more fundamental support to keep it above this price. The rest of the precious metals complex of course has benefitted as well. The PGMs may also be benefitting more so on the news of further sanctions out of Europe on Russia which keeps raising concerns of supply risk into the future. The Net Longs on Pt futures are exceptionally high and could tempt profit takers but the continued growth of the Pt ETFs now at 2.878 mm ounces continues to add support. This afternoons release of the FOMC minutes of the last meetings are certain to be an important focus of the markets in general. Gold has resistance at 1309 and support at 1301, silver resistance 20.80, platinum has support 1472 and resistance 1488/92, Pd has resistance at 888/892.

It appears that the precious metals market has put on the brakes to the downside.

It appears that the precious metals market has put on the brakes to the downside. It may be that the New Home Sales numbers in the US were more than lackluster and surprised many yesterday. But this morning’s US Durable Goods Order report was much better than expected at up +.70% boosting confidence in the US economy and keeping a damper on any possible attempt to the upside for the gold market. Silver, platinum and palladium which have greater industrial consumption may have the ability to gain more to the upside on this data. With the global economy moving in a positive direction and the discounting of the geopolitical crisis, we will likely see on this Friday sideways price action for the complex. Gold has support at 1291 and resistance 1301, silver 20.18 support and resistance 21.08. Platinum has support 1463 and resistance 1483. Palladium has support 865 and resistance 882

The precious metals prices are off this morning on the lack of any real complications in trade coming to be from the geopolitical crisis.

The precious metals prices are off this morning on the lack of any real complications in trade coming to be from the geopolitical crisis. With the Ukraine/Gaza issues in the minds of the market off the books, the positive economic news out of China, Europe and the US have added enough pressure on gold to drive it below the 1300. China had a very positive HSBC PMI number of 52 which was higher than expected. European economic data has also been positive data and Spain’s Unemployment number is starting to show signs of improvement a relief for the Eurozone. Finally with steady improvement of the US economy the dollar has seen growing strength which has added more pressure on the precious metals complex. Add to this the fact that demand for gold in China is down 19% YoY. This morning New Home Sales in the US  was released at only 406 mm when expectations were 479mm. Palladium which is holding as expected because of the hedging from industrial consumer which expect continued shortfall of supply and fear problems with supply out of Russia.

2014 Tokelau 1/2 oz. Silver Kakahi Yellowfin Tuna Coin

2014 Tokelau 1/2 oz. Silver Kakahi Yellowfin Tuna Coin

The stunning new Kakahi Yellow Fin Tuna silver bullion coin is the first coin to be released in a new series of silver bullion coins issued by Tokelau to celebrate the rich ocean life of this South Pacific Ocean territory of New Zealand. The coins are legal tender with a face value of NZ$2 and are minted from half an ounce of .999 fine silver. All Tokelau coin designs are sent to the Royal Palace in London for approval of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II whose portrait appears on the coins.

Specifications:

Issuing Authority: Tokelau
Authorized Mintage: 250,000
Metal: Silver
Weight: ½  troy oz.
Purity. 999
Face Value: NZ$2

Final 1st quarter GDP of -2.9% showed that the US economy contracted much more than previously

Final 1^st quarter GDP of -2.9% showed that the US economy contracted much more than previously estimated. Personal consumption of 1% was also much lower than the previously reported 2.4%. The consensus is that the US economy have since bottomed and is recovering at a healthy pace despite lingering employment weakness. May durable goods orders were also lower at -1% vs. estimated 0%. Durable ex transportation was down 0.1% compared to surveyed 0.3% growth. The US economy still looks shaky as the FED is trying to remove the crutches that we’ve been on since the financial crisis of 2008. Gold and silver have been quietly holding onto gains of last week. Platinum and palladium continue in directionless trading as investors and funds are stubbornly reluctant to get of their long positions despite the end of the mining strike and Russian/Ukraine threat.

 

FOMC decided at this meeting to continue tapering their bond buying by $10 billion for a 5th straight meeting to $35 billion

Good Afternoon,

 

FOMC decided at this meeting to continue tapering their bond buying by $10 billion for a 5^th straight meeting to $35 billion and on pace to end the program this year. The bond purchase will be $20 billion in treasuries and $15 billion in mortgage back securities. Fed left interest rate near zero and cut its GDP outlook from between 2.8%-3% down to 2.1%-2.3%. Fed chair Yellen reiterated that the pace of tapering will depend on future economic and employment data and not set at the $10 billion. The Fed said inflation continues to be lower than the 2% target rate. There is nothing new in the FOMC decision or the Q&A afterwards so the market reaction is muted with gold and silver up slightly and platinum and palladium up on noise coming out of South Africa that the Union leadership are putting in additional demands than what was agreed in the settlement framework. We would maintain our long position in gold and silver and look to sell half the position at around $1290 and $20.05 and sell the other half above $1300 and $20.25 respectively. We would be cautious of platinum and palladium as any more negative news regarding the settlement framework will cause the price to spike in the near term while long term outlook remains bearish, as investors and funds look to liquidate their long positions will cause the prices to fall sharply. Sit back, relax, and watch the stocks move higher would be the conventional wisdom. Have a wonderful evening.

Yesterday’s FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers will continue to provide assistance

Yesterday’s FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers will continue to provide assistance to the economy and keep interest rates low. Two central bankers are set to leave the Fed this month while three are poised to join before the next policy meeting. With this change, there could be expectations of uncertainty in the market in respect to the Fed’s future actions. Before the Fed decides to raise rates, they will scrutinize the unemployment rate until the desirable figure is achieved. Raising rates will be dependent upon improving economic data as the prevailing view is that inflation will achieve the 2% objective over the next few years. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 5/17 are up 28,000 pulling gold prices higher this morning. Gold is underpinning Platinum prices which jumped to a high of 1497.80 this morning for July delivery. Have a wonderful day.

What a way to start Monday morning with the precious metal market trading on the upside this morning.

What a way to start Monday morning with the precious metal market trading on the upside this morning. Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium are trading in the positive territory up .58%, 1.18%, .96%, .70% respectively.  Platinum and Palladium are extending their gains this morning amid supply concerns due to the strike in South Africa. The strike continues in its 16^th week and still no resolution in sight. The safe-haven metal is up 7.5% for the year. Have a wonderful day!

 

Platinum and Palladium prices have eased this morning as investors sold into the highs to reap profits.

Platinum and Palladium prices have eased this morning as investors sold into the highs to reap profits. Platinum closed $29.70 higher yesterday at $1485.70 for July delivery pulling Gold prices higher which closed at 1305.90 for June delivery. The violence in South Africa has intensified with 4 platinum miners killed as they tried to return to work. The AMCU is trying to inhibit other strikers from returning to work via intimidation. More violence means it will take longer for the producers and the AMCU to come to a settlement along with less employees returning to work. April CPI met expectations with a reading of .3%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 5/9 are down 24,000 with a figure of 297,000. CPI (YoY) is in line with forecasts of 2%. Have a great day!

What a nice way to start this beautiful morning with AU, AG, PT, and PD up 1.05%, 2.39%, .86%, and 1.03%.

What a nice way to start this beautiful morning with AU, AG, PT, and PD up 1.05%, 2.39%, .86%, and 1.03%. The instability in Ukraine along with a softer U.S. dollar reversed the selling pressure on gold seen this morning in the Asian markets. Geopolitical tensions have been unable to extend gold’s gains above the $1300 level. The strike continues and at this point job cuts and restructuring at Lonmin are bound to happen as earnings decline. Quiet day this morning with limited news and data. Have a great Monday!!

Yesterday Janet Yellen spoke once again at Capitol Hill to reiterate what she said on Wednesday.

Yesterday Janet Yellen spoke once again at Capitol Hill to reiterate what she said on Wednesday. The markets didn’t move much since Yellen was repeating what everyone already knew. Putin made an announcement to postpone the referendum, however Pro-Moscow separatists ignored the call and declared that they will proceed with a vote on Sunday that could result in chaos! According to ECB President Mario Draghi, the bank will take any action necessary in June to strengthen the economy if inflation objectives are not met. PGM prices continue to be underpinned by the ongoing strike in South Africa. Have a wonderful weekend!

 

Yesterday, the Fed Chair testified and discussed that there is still a considerable amount of slack...

Yesterday, the Fed Chair testified and discussed that there is still a considerable amount of slack in the labor market, particularly in the housing sector. Yellen believes economic activity will expand, unemployment will decline gradually, and inflation will reach the 2% objective. The rate of long term unemployment has plenty of room for improvement and thus monetary accommodation is still necessary. Once again, Yellen mentioned that rates would have to stay low for a “considerable” time period even when quantitative easing is over. As per Yellen, geopolitics is a prominent economic risk as tensions in Ukraine continue to intensify. We saw a selloff yesterday in the markets when Putin announced he would pull his troops away from the Ukrainian border and delay the referendum. Gold and Silver declined closing on the downside $19.70  at 1288.90 for June delivery and closing .303 cents lower at 19.342 for July delivery. The BOE and ECB have both decided to leave rates unchanged at .50% and .25% respectively. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 5/3 dropped 26,000 with a reading of 319,000. This drop was expected with people away for the Easter holiday. Have a great day!

Precious metals market is down this morning with AU, AG, PT, and PD trading .32%, .54%, .98%, 1.12% on the downside this morning.

Precious metals market is down this morning with AU, AG, PT, and PD trading .32%, .54%, .98%,  1.12% on the downside this morning. We have seen gold trading sideways amid the political turmoil in Ukraine and the Fed’s decision to taper by another $10B/month. Investors are waiting for Yellen’s comments later this morning at 10:00 a.m. Markets will have their ears open for any indications about when investors should expect to see a raise in rates. Still no resolution between the Platinum producers and the AMCU as the strike continues for the fifteenth week. Have a great day!!

What a great way to start the morning with the precious metals complex trading on the upside

What a great way to start the morning with the precious metals complex trading on the upside. Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium are all up .87%, .73%, .91%, and .46% respectively. Gold’s losses were limited on Friday despite a stronger than forecasted jobs report due to an increased number of workers dropping out of the labor force. The economic data was favorable for the gold bulls with the metal closing $19.50 higher on Friday at 1302.90 for June delivery. It’s expected to be a quiet day today since London is closed for May Day holiday. The latest update on the strike is that the union didn’t accept the platinum producers’ revised offer. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI figures will be released today at 10:00 a.m. Have a fabulous day.

We saw more action yesterday morning in the precious metals market with first quarter’s weak GDP number than we did when the FOMC minutes were released yesterday afternoon.

We saw more action yesterday morning in the precious metals market with first quarter’s weak GDP number than we did when the FOMC minutes were released yesterday afternoon. The Fed is trimming its bond purchases by another $10 billion from $55 billion/month to $45 billion/month. According to the Fed, a weak first quarter GDP was expected due to adverse weather conditions. Quantitative easing is expected to be completed by October while rates are expected to rise by mid-2015. “The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually.” Now that the Fed has continued its pull back program by another $10B as expected, investors are anxiously waiting for tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll figures. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 4/26 are up 14,000 with a reading of 344,000. Personal spending for March is up .9% vs. expectations of.6%. Have a wonderful day!

Yesterday’s Consumer Confidence Index was slightly lower than expectations

Yesterday’s Consumer Confidence Index was slightly lower than expectations with a reading of 82.3. The strike is now in its fourteenth week and still no solution has been reached. The Platinum producers have been trying to make offers to their employees through local radio stations, text messages, e-mails and other forms of communication. The Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union has kindly asked the producers not to bypass the union as employees will not directly assent to any negotiated offers. At this point it looks like any signs of a resolution being reached before the national elections on May 7^th is highly unlikely. According to the ADP report, Private Sector Employment for April is up 220,000 vs. consensus of 210,000 with the most jobs added to the construction sector. The stronger than expected nonfarm employment change dropped gold prices by $10 which rebounded moments later after the first quarter’s GDP figure was reported to be much weaker than predicted up .1% vs. expectations of 1.2%. Stay tuned for the release of the FOMC Statement at 2:00 pm. Have a great day.

The tensions in Ukraine are giving gold support which is trading in the $1300 range this morning

The tensions in Ukraine are giving gold support which is trading in the $1300 range this morning as the U.S. is expected to step up sanctions against Russia later today. The Russian troops continue their military exercises on Ukraine’s borders inclining fears of further possible takeovers. Still no solution between the Platinum producers and the AMCU. At this point it looks like the producers are going to take their wage offers directly to their employees bypassing the union. Anglo, Impala, and Lonmin’s latest offer to the union is to give them the desired R 12,500 a month by July 2017. Stay tuned for Pending Home Sale numbers coming out at 10:00 a.m. Have a great day!

What a day it was yesterday for the shiny yellow metal which started the morning trading $15 on the downside

What a day it was yesterday for the shiny yellow metal which started the morning trading $15 on the downside to as low as 1268.40 and reversing its course reaching a high of 1299 for the day. Gold continues to see some support this morning by the instability in Ukraine. Five Russian rebels were killed yesterday by Ukrainian forces further escalating tensions between the two groups. There is very limited news today, however, next week we will see plenty of economic data beginning with Pending Home Sales on Monday, Consumer Confidence numbers on Tuesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, and NFP numbers on Friday. Still no settlement between the Platinum producers and the AMCU. Have a wonderful and fun weekend!!

What a way to start the morning with AU, AG, PT & PD all down 1.03%, 2%, .65%, and .76% respectively.

What a way to start the morning with AU, AG, PT & PD all down 1.03%, 2%, .65%, and .76% respectively. Yesterday’s New Home Sales figure missed expectations by 14.7% with a reading of 384,000 vs. the forecast of 450,000. Simply put, home prices are just too high! Core Durable Goods Orders for March are up 2% vs. expectations of .6%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 4/19 are up 24,000 with a figure of 329,000. The Platinum producers and the Association of Mineworkers Construction Union are scheduled to meet again in hopes to come to a solution. Something must be cooking as this is the third day of discussion between the two groups. Have a great day!!!

After yesterday’s Existing Home Sales figures were better than expected

After yesterday’s Existing Home Sales figures were better than expected with a reading of 4.59M vs. expectations of 4.55M, gold prices dipped closing at 1281.10 for June delivery. Any positive economic data at this point is bearish for gold as this indicates that the Fed will continue tapering. The preliminary Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI was pretty much in line with expectations with a reading of 48.3 signaling an economy that continues to be in contraction. Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium are trading in the green zone this morning up .54%, .70%, .24%, and .20% respectively. Gold prices are up 7.1% for the year based on the political tensions in Ukraine which fueled demand for the safe haven asset. The three Platinum producers came up with a revised offer for the AMCU, however it does not meet the union’s demands. Talks to end the longest and most expensive  strike in South Africa will resume today. New Home Sales will be released today at 10:00 am! Have a great day.

We should see some more activity in the markets today as everyone has returned from Easter weekend.

We should see some more activity in the markets today as everyone has returned from Easter weekend. The precious metals market is trading on the upside this morning with Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium up roughly .23%, .64%, .53%, and 1.07% respectively. Palladium prices took a hit yesterday amid expectations of a negotiation being reached in South Africa. Palladium futures for June delivery settled $29.30 lower yesterday at 777.80. The three PT producers and the Association of Mineworkers Construction Union will meet today to discuss revised wages. People are anxious for this strike to be over as this has been the longest and most exorbitant strike the South African mines have ever experienced. Stay tuned for New Home Sales at 10:00 am! Have a delightful day.

Yesterday was tax day and gold prices tumbled significantly to as low as 1284.40 for June futures.

Yesterday was tax day and gold prices tumbled significantly to as low as 1284.40 for June futures. A year from yesterday prices were down roughly 9%. Headlines in China about 1,000 tonnes of AU being tied in financing spooked the markets pulling down prices for AU, AG, PT, and PD throughout the day. According to the World Gold Council, the Chinese markets have an appetite for physical AU such as bars and coins as a form of savings and thus, demand will most likely increase by 19% when we enter 2017. Chinese GDP hit a 2 year low of 7.4%, but was still above expectations of 7.3%. Palladium prices were down yesterday with June futures trading as low as 786.50. The PD sponge situation remains the same as people continue to hoard the metal. Building Permits figure for March is .990M vs. February’s result of 1.014M. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report will be released at 2:00 pm today. Have a lovely day.

The political unrest in Ukraine helped boost gold prices on Monday with June futures closing at 1327.50.

The political unrest in Ukraine helped boost gold prices on Monday with June futures closing at 1327.50.  Although the uncertainty is favorable for AU, several analysts are waiting for the demand for the safe haven asset to fizzle out. The tightness in the Palladium markets continue amid tensions in Ukraine and the ongoing strike in South Africa. The precious metal markets are trading in the red zone across the board this morning. A stronger U.S. dollar and profit taking is putting pressure on gold prices in addition to a report by the World Gold Council which indicated that China’s demand for gold will be limited this year due to the vast consumption in 2013. Silver prices are being dragged by the gold and is trading  approximately 3.3% on the downside this morning. We see intensified long liquidation in Palladium as the metal broke below $800. CPI for March is up .2% vs. expectations of .1%. Have a great day!

Palladium made a new high at $814.20 as supply concerns continue to escalate and is up roughly 14% for the year.

Palladium made a new high at $814.20 as supply concerns continue to escalate and is up roughly 14% for the year. Tensions in Ukraine and expectations that interest rates will continue to stay low have been supporting gold prices at these levels. The Fed’s March minutes clarified that interest rates will not rise substantially after quantitative easing is over as the markets had previously expected. Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs continue to remain bearish on gold as they believe this rally is temporary. Core Retail Sales for March are up .7% vs. expectations of .5%. Have a wonderful day.

Yesterday’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI result of 53.1 was close to forecasts of 53.5.

Yesterday’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI result of 53.1 was close to forecasts of 53.5. This figure indicates that the non-manufacturing sector of the economy is generally expanding. The metals markets are trading on the upside early this morning ahead of the NFP and unemployment numbers. Nonfarm Payroll numbers for March are up 192,000 vs. expectations of 200,000 and the unemployment rate remains at 6.7%. We saw gold break above 1300 on the screens amid the weaker than expected jobs report and slightly come off moments later. Gold and silver are trading on the upside as weaker than forecasted economic data signals that perhaps the Fed won’t hike rates earlier than expected. Have a wonderful weekend!

All the metals are trading on the upside across the board with the exception of gold.

All the metals are trading on the upside across the board with the exception of gold. Silver, Platinum, Palladium up  .18%, .85%, and .66% and Gold down .15% . Gold was down approximately 3% in the month of March amid Janet Yellen’s hawkish statement that eroded interest in the non-yielding asset. Yellen will speak in Chicago today and investors will be listening for her stance on rates. Platinum continues to see support due to supply concerns since the strike has still not come to an end. Overall, the interest for physical gold has been quiet despite the lower prices with the exception of Japan, which saw an escalation in demand for the shiny yellow metal before the nation’s consumption tax rises tomorrow.

The markets are moving lower this morning with AU, AG, PT, PD down .74%, .71%. 24%. and 2.06% respectively.

The markets are moving lower this morning with AU, AG, PT, PD down .74%, .71%. 24%. and 2.06% respectively. Gold broke below $1,300 based on expectations of rates rising sooner than expected and tensions calming in Ukraine. Next week’s NFP numbers will be scrutinized to give investors a better gauge of the outlook of the U.S. economy.  Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 3/22 missed expectations of 325,000 with a reading of 311,000. GDP (QoQ) is at 2.6% vs. expectations of 2.7%.  The Platinum strike has been ongoing for ten weeks with no solution in sight. The mediator met with the union yesterday to discuss bringing the strike to an end.

New Home Sales fell 3.3% in February with a reading of 440,000.

New Home Sales fell 3.3% in February with a reading of 440,000. People are feeling optimistic about the economy as seen by yesterday’s Consumer Confidence result of 82.3 vs. expectations of 78.6. Gold is seeing light support as a safe haven appeal, but the gains are short lived as the overall sentiment for the metal is bearish amid expectations of rising rates. Physical demand for gold remains very weak despite the lower prices. The Palladium situation seems to be somewhat easing and the metal is trading 1.53% on the downside this morning. Core Durable Goods Orders for February are up .2% vs. January’s .9%.

We continue to see pressure on gold this morning as expectations of rising rates have been lifting the U.S. Dollar.

We continue to see pressure on gold this morning as expectations of rising rates have been lifting the U.S. Dollar. According to Richard Fisher, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the asset buying program should be completed by the end of October. James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, believes Janet Yellen’s remarks in regards to when we can expect to see rates rise after QE was in line with market expectations. Gold dropped 3.5% after the Fed’s announcement last week as talks about rising rates are bearish for the metal. Silver continues to follow gold’s slump and is currently trading  approximately 1% on the downside this morning. Palladium continues to spike hitting a high of $802 in overnight trading due to supply concerns arousing from the ongoing strike in South Africa and tensions in Ukraine.

Gold started the morning trading $20 on the downside, but reversed some of its losses once

Gold started the morning trading $20 on the downside, but reversed some of its losses once Obama announced he was going to impose sanctions on individuals along with “key sectors” of the Russian economy in response to the annexation of Crimea. Obama calls for the people of Ukraine to determine their own destiny and maintain healthy relations with whom they choose. The shiny yellow metal has the potential to see some upside with the Ukraine tensions escalating. Overall, the long term predictions are that gold prices will tumble amid expectations of rising rates. Any positive economic data at this point is bearish for gold. The Palladium situation keeps getting tighter and tighter! The situation in South Africa and sanctions on Russia is making the markets nervous. People are hoarding the metal amid uncertainty and fear. Palladium has hit its highest since Aug 2011 and  is currently trading 2.8% on the upside.

Gold continued tumbling from its six month high amid speculation that the Fed will continue tapering and Putin’s words of not wanting to split up Ukraine.

Gold continued tumbling from its six month high amid speculation that the Fed will continue tapering and Putin’s words of not wanting to split up Ukraine. As far as the strike goes at the Platinum mines, well nothing has changed. The strike has been ongoing for over 7 weeks and the AMCU is still demanding higher wages. The union members want wages to be increased to 12,500 RAND within a three year horizon. These demands are unrealistic as per the companies and thus both sides remain at a standstill. Today is Janet Yellen’s first press conference after the FOMC Statement comes out at 2:00 pm. The central bank is expected to continue its reduction stimulus program and give us more information on forward guidance. Investors will be listening carefully for any clues of when the Fed plans to raise interest rates. Since the safe haven buying has been fading, gold’s movement should be driven more by the state of the U.S. economy.

Clearly, the tensions in Ukraine are not over and it will probably be some time before we can turn away from the topic.

Clearly, the tensions in Ukraine are not over and it will probably be some time before we can turn away from the topic. Investors are wondering if we will see gold make a bull run to 1400 or if the turmoil has been priced into the market already. Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas argues that the Fed needs to be more aggressive on its pullback to avoid any asset bubbles from forming. As per Yellen, she does not see any evidence or support of such bubbles in sight. After AU made a new overnight low, it reversed its course falling approximately $15 yesterday. Currently, the precious metals market is trading in the red zone as Putin brushed off the sanctions introduced by Europe and the United States. AU, AG, PT, and PD are down roughly 1.5%, 2.5%, .76%, and 1.7% respectively. Core CPI reading for February is .1%.

Silver and gold saw gains throughout the day yesterday amid instability in Ukraine and China.

Silver and gold saw gains throughout the day yesterday amid instability in Ukraine and China. The fear related to China’s corporate debt default is a sufficient reason for investors to take their money out of equities and put it into an asset like gold which is an insurance against risk.  We saw gold break above $1,370 setting new support and resistant levels. The panic that was predominately prevalent in the Chinese markets didn’t wreak havoc upon U.S. equities to the extent as expected considering the correlation between the two markets. South Africa concerns have still not faded thus lifting yesterday’s Platinum and Palladium prices  .80% and .75% higher. Retail Sales for February are up .3% vs. the forecast of .2%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 3/8 are down 9,000 with a reading of 315,000.

Very quiet day yesterday in the markets due to limited news. Platinum, Palladium & Silver traded on the downside yesterday with the exception of gold.

Very quiet day yesterday in the markets due to limited news. Platinum, Palladium & Silver traded on the downside yesterday with the exception of gold. Currently, all the precious metals are trading in the positive territory. Investors are meticulously watching  on how long  gold will sustain its rally until we see a dramatic drop In prices amid easing tensions in Ukraine. The ongoing chaos continues to lift gold prices this morning based on news that shots are being fired in Crimea. As long as nervousness, uncertainty, and fear exists about the situation, gold should continue to see gains. A negotiation has still not been reached between the AMCU and the three Platinum producers. The Johannesburg Sunday Times mentioned that the weak negotiation skills of the CCMA members made it difficult for the parties to come to terms.

The PGM complex is pressing higher this morning as strike action in South Africa’s mining sector continues.

The PGM complex is pressing higher this morning as strike action in South Africa’s mining sector continues. Despite a recent concession by the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union there is still concern that the impasse between the union and the world’s largest mining companies is far from being resolved. The AMCU has offered to give the mining companies three years to get wages for entry level workers to 12,000 rand, more than twice the pay entry level workers currently take home. However, the demands remain far outside the scope of what many consider feasible. Platinum continues to trade near the day’s high of $1482.70, now at $1480 (+1.3%). Palladium is out-shining the others, up ~1.5 with further support coming from increased tensions in the Crimean peninsula as Putin continues to rattle his sabre. U.S. markets have been on a roller coaster ride as nobody really quite knows what to expect from Mr. Putin.  In other domestic economic news, U.S. ADP non-farm payrolls were reportedly up 139,000 in the second month of 2014. The figures missed expectations and don’t necessarily paint a rosy picture ahead of Friday’s all-important government NFP data. The Fed’s beige book is on tap for this afternoon. Have a great day!

Despite the turmoil in Ukraine, equities remained strong on Friday. Investors were moving money out of other assets into the stock market.

Despite the turmoil in Ukraine, equities remained strong on Friday. Investors were moving money out of other assets into the stock market. As a result, gold prices saw a decline since there was a reduction in demand for the precious metal. What we saw Friday is quite the opposite of what we are seeing on the screens this morning! Precious metals are trading in the positive territory this morning with gold up 1.8%. The escalating crisis in  Ukraine has pushed nervous investors out of equities and emerging market funds straight into safe haven assets such as the Japanese yen and gold. The shiny yellow metal could continue to see some upside amid geopolitical concerns. Pending Home Sales were up .1% in January vs. 2% estimate. Other than the weather being one of the reasons why the figure missed forecasts, there is simply a lack of homes for sale especially in the West Coast. Have a great day!

Existing Home Sales had a reading of 4.62M on Friday, which was lower than the expected 4.68M.

Existing Home Sales  had a reading of 4.62M on Friday, which was lower than the expected 4.68M. Can’t blame the result on weather, but we can blame it on affordability! People are simply not making the money they should to buy houses for sales. Richard Fisher, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, supports the Fed’s continuation of tapering. According to James Bullard, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Fed created a “pessimistic problem” when they announced in December to keep rates low well into 2015. Bullard believes this announcement may have signaled that the economy will not strengthen until next year. As a result, the FOMC rephrased its outlook by adopting thresholds that will give investors indications of when rates may increase. By not having a completion date of the reduction stimulus, Bullard discussed that more aggressive cutbacks should be expected depending on improvements in the labor market. Have a great day.

Westminster Mint Issues New 2 oz. Silver Bullion Rounds for Only $0.49c per oz. Over Spot

Westminster Mint provides an online platform and dependable service for people who require low prices and fast physical delivery of their gold and silver bullion. “Our new 2-ounce silver bullion rounds offer significant cost of manufacture savings that can be passed along to the consumer,” said Ian Clay, President of Westminster Mint.

Westminster Mint issues New 2 oz. Silver Bullion Rounds for only $0.49c per oz. over spot!

Plymouth, Minnesota (PRWEB) February 21, 2014

Westminster Mint has just released a new 2-ounce silver bullion round with the popular American Buffalo design. These rounds are struck from 2 ounces of .999 fine silver and are individually hallmarked stamped for weight and purity. “By issuing rounds that are twice as thick as regular rounds we can save on striking fees and pass the savings on to our customers,” said Ian Clay President of Westminster Mint.

Last year Westminster Mint offered several short term promotions featuring a 2-ounce silver bullion round with a silver eagle design for $0.49c to $0.79c per round. “These promotions were a massive success,” said Ian Clay. The company now plans to promote 2-ounce rounds using both the silver eagle design and the new American Buffalo design for $0.49c per ounce above the price of spot silver through June 2014. The rounds measure 39 mm in diameter are 5 mm thick and are made to ISO 9001 standards in the United States. The rounds are sold individually or in tubes of ten.

The Fed Minutes were released yesterday and the tapering continues!

The Fed Minutes were released yesterday and the tapering continues! Certain policy makers expressed concern yesterday that it’s time to raise rates before the mid-year since we are approaching the 6.5% unemployment rate threshold. On the other hand, doves feel it’s  too soon to raise rates as lingering effects of the financial crisis remain. The overall sentiment for the U.S. economy is positive as officials blame weak economic data on bad weather. The reduction program will continue as seen appropriate “until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability.”  The Fed reiterated that the cut back in asset purchases is not on a pre-set schedule and the pace of tapering is contingent upon labor market conditions and inflation meeting its long term objectives. The precious metals complex didn’t take the news so well and prices dropped instantaneously. Tapering is unfavorable for gold and so are talks about raising rates as investors would prefer to put their money into interest bearing assets. The Core CPI (MoM) is .1% as expected and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 2/15 is 336,000 vs. the forecast of 335,000. Have a great day.

After disappointing initial claims and retail sales hurt the USD, gold was able to spike to 1300 yesterday for the first time since November 8th. Janet Yellen was unable to speak yesterday since D.C. was covered in snow.

After disappointing initial claims and retail sales hurt the USD, gold was able to spike to 1300 yesterday for the first time since November 8^th. Janet Yellen was unable to speak yesterday since D.C. was covered in snow. Platinum and Palladium traded higher yesterday as South Africa concerns continued to fuel higher. The DJIA managed to close on the upside at 16027.59 despite weak retail sales. Investors are trying to determine the path for gold since it broke above 1300. Bulls feel there is potential for the metal to move higher if the Fed tapers in continued increments and if India eases its import restrictions. Bears are anticipating the drop, it’s just a matter of when. Based on all this crazy weather, it looks like we can expect February’s NFP numbers to be skewed once again! This is the week the Bureau of Labor Statistics goes around to do their survey for their jobs report and if people have not been going to work and getting paid then perhaps February’s report will miss expectations. Have a great day.

Markets still managed to rally on Friday despite a disappointing jobs report. I guess this means that bad news can be good news!!

Markets still managed to rally on Friday despite a disappointing jobs report. I guess this means that bad news can be good news!! The dollar fell in response to the data and gold was able to see some gains throughout the day. The question to ask is when will we see a solid jobs report whose numbers are not biased towards the weather? We’ve already seen snowstorms in February so perhaps we will have to wait until March to get a better snapshot of the U.S. economy. It’s unlikely that the Fed is going to put tapering on hold. Perhaps the Fed would question its pullback effects if it saw weaker employment data and lower inflation rates down the road. The issue at hand is whether the economy is performing poorly because the recovery has become stagnant or because the snow storms have been slowing down manufacturing growth and people from job hunting. Economists would like to believe it’s because of the weather. If the weather is to be blamed then why did we see a decline in the unemployment rate? There are 2 reasons to consider: the unemployment benefits for 1.3 million Americans expired in December so people are actively seeking for jobs and getting hired while others are simply tired of looking for work and have exited the labor force. Have a great day!

The stock market finally reversed its downward trend and rallied yesterday with the Dow closing at 15628.53.

The stock market finally reversed its downward trend and rallied yesterday with the Dow closing at 15628.53. The markets in China are back after their week long holiday from celebrating the New Year. Today is the day that investors have been anxiously waiting for- the Nonfarm Payrolls number and the Unemployment Rate. NFP figures for January are up 113,000 vs. December’s figure of 75,000, but still way below the consensus of 185,000. The Unemployment Rate is at 6.6% vs. last month’s number of 6.7%. Gold spiked to a high of 1272 due to another month of a disappointing job report. I guess we can blame the weather for the weak data once again! Investors are questioning how the Fed would interpret this report. Does this mean they may consider putting the taper on pause or perhaps nothing can hold them back since they have already started scaling back? I guess we will have to wait until the next Fed meeting in March to find out! Have a great weekend!!!

Yesterday Turkey’s central bank hiked rates dramatically to bring about support for the Lira.

Yesterday Turkey’s central bank hiked rates dramatically to bring about support for the Lira. After a short rally, the Lira fell along with other emerging market currencies and the European markets. It seems as if investors don’t care if local rates go up, they just want to flee emerging markets. Turmoil in emerging markets didn’t stop the Fed from trimming its bond buying stimulus. Yesterday, the Fed announced a further $10 billion reduction in its asset purchase program. Beginning in February, the Fed will buy $65 billion of bonds per month vs. the current buying of $75B per month. Even if unemployment falls to the 6.5% threshold, Fed officials will continue to keep rates near zero as long as inflation stays within the 2% target range. Gold saw minimal gains from this news as markets expected this to occur. Perhaps if the Fed had taken a different course of action yesterday, the markets would be more befuddled. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 1/25 are up 19,000 with a result of 348,000. GDP (4Q) grew at 3.2% vs. third quarter’s rate of 4.1%. Have a wonderful day!

The equities market saw a sell off yesterday shortly after the opening due to disappointing manufacturing data in China.

The equities market saw a sell off yesterday shortly after the opening due to disappointing manufacturing data in China. China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 compared to December’s reading of 50.6. A reading of 49.6 indicates that China’s manufacturing economy is in a declining state of mode. China’s poor PMI news was favorable to gold and silver as we saw some safe haven buying. Gold hit a 2 month high yesterday as the US Dollar hit a one week low. The USD fell .4% against the basket of currencies. In addition, there were talks about India trying to ease their import restrictions which gave gold a boost. Home Sales for December rose about 1% to 4.87M from November’s revised 4.82M. There’s not much news in reference to the AMCU strike except that the government will step in to settle disputes between the union and the 3 major PT producers. Have a nice weekend

The first gold fixing took place on September 12, 1919.

The first gold fixing took place on September 12, 1919. The 5 members, Barclays Plc, Deutsche Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, HSBC, and Societe Generale meet for the fix twice a day at 10:30 am and 3 pm London time. The Chairman gives an opening price before the fix commences and the banks  either buy, sell, or show no interest. Based on this, the price increases or decreases until buyers and sellers are matched or the imbalance is 50 bars or less. Once this happens the price is “fixed.” This benchmark represents a point in time when the AU market is considered to be in equilibrium. Banks are considering to meticulously examine the process and look for ways to implement the fixing procedure.  According to Bloomberg News, there are concerns the markets are being manipulated and perhaps this process needs to be updated. Deutsche Bank plans to drop out of the AU & AG fixing altogether once a replacement for its seat is found since it is scaling back its commodities business.

Workers at Anglo American Platinum (the largest PT producer) have decided to go on strike along with Impala and Lonmin.

Workers at Anglo American Platinum (the largest PT producer) have decided to go on strike along with Impala and Lonmin. The Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) make up roughly 60% of the workforce in Anglo. The union is demanding entry level wages of at least $1,150 a month. If these demands are not met, the strike will go into effect this week. As a result, Platinum prices are seeing support and trading approximately $15 higher this morning. 

Gold continues to trade sideways and speculative data shows that the number of shorts and longs continue to rise. It’s difficult to predict the path gold is taking since it hasn’t broken through current levels and the Fed doesn’t meet until next week. It’s a very quiet day as the stock market is closed for Martin Luther King Day. Please note that since the electronic trading platform will close at 1:15 PM today, we will stop quoting prices as of 1:00 PM.

The Fed’s Balance Sheet has hit $4 trillion due to the monetary stimulus program, which was designed to keep long term interest rates low and encourage spending and hiring.

The Fed’s Balance Sheet has hit $4 trillion due to the monetary stimulus program, which was designed to keep long term interest rates low and encourage spending and hiring. Ben Bernanke made his last planned public remarks yesterday and reassured investors that if unemployment rates reach the 6.5% threshold, the Fed will continue to keep rates near zero as long as inflation remains below the 2% target level. This insinuates that tapering isn’t tightening! Bernanke made no reference to halt tapering so looks like we can expect the scaling back to continue and see a completion of the program late in the year. Two out of the three top producers of Platinum, Lonmin PLC and Impala, are likely to see the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) strike. If wage demands are not met, Lonmin should see the strike take place on January 23^rd. If the strike happens, supply concerns could push PT prices to much higher levels.

Eight times a year the Fed publishes the Beige Book, which gives us a synopsis of the overall health of the U.S. economy.

Eight times a year the Fed publishes the Beige Book, which gives us a synopsis of the overall health of the U.S. economy. It’s available to the public and is released 2 weeks before the FOMC meeting. The snapshot illustrates the U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate pace and saw an increase in hiring levels. There were general improvements in the real estate market as most districts cited a boost in residential home sales. Retail Sales are a very essential component of the report since consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP and have showed gains since the last report. The districts had mixed views on leisure and tourist spending, but reported steady growth in the manufacturing sector. Based on the Beige Book, the outlook for the U.S. economy seems to be positive. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 1/11 is down 2,000 to 326,000 and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is up 3%. Have a great day!

Yesterday we saw a sell-off in AU and of course PT,PD & AG followed the yellow metal’s down trend.

Yesterday we saw a sell-off in AU and of course PT,PD & AG followed the yellow metal’s down trend. On a brighter note, the market had a good day with the DJIA trading on the upside after a week of declines. Richard Fisher, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and one of the most hawkish policy makers, supports a continuation in tapering even if equities take a hit. According to Fisher, tapering minimizes the risk of the formation of an asset bubble. He is in favor of paring bond purchases in increments of $20B vs. $10B just to speed up the completion of the program. Gold continues to trade in the negative territory for two days in a row due to a rally in the U.S. Dollar and the equities market. South Africa’s Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) announced launching a possible strike due to low wages, but PT did not show any reaction to this news. The Core Producer Price Index for December is up .3% vs.  .1% for November. Have a great day!

Gold saw some gains yesterday throughout the day due to short covering and index buying into the close.

Gold saw some gains yesterday throughout the day due to short covering and index buying into the close. Dennis Lockhart, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, suggested that an “accommodative monetary policy” should be enacted even though he expects to see further economic growth. Lockhart expects GDP to grow from 2.5% to 3% in 2014 and if this holds true, he believes the Fed should continue tapering at its current pace. Investors continue to remain bearish on the overall outlook of AU for 2014 as the shiny yellow metal loses its luster as an inflationary hedge. Core Retail Sales (excluding auto sector) are up .7% for December vs.  .1% for November. December Retail sales are up .2% vs. .4% for November. The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for January 29-30 so we will have to wait two more weeks to see what the taper timetable will look like. Have a great day!

 

Gold saw some upside after the fixing as the U.S. Dollar softened.

Gold saw some upside after the fixing as the U.S. Dollar softened. The economy continues its momentum with weekly jobless claims exceeding expectations. Weekly jobless claims dropped to 330,000 vs. prior weekly claims of 345,000. Both the BOE and ECB have decided to keep interest rates unchanged. The ECB is keeping interest rates at .25% and the BOE is keeping rates at .50%. Today is the day investors have anxiously been waiting for because the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment numbers come out! The U.S. economy added 74,000 positions vs. expectations of 196,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%  vs. a forecast of 7% due to a dwindling labor force participation rate. Investors are surprised by today’s job report as the actual numbers seem to be very inconsistent with the robust ISM numbers, better than expected ADP Report, and declining weekly jobless claims. The precious metals complex views the weak job report as positive news and thus, all the metals are currently trading on the upside. Have a great weekend!

The Fed minutes for December’s policy meeting are finally out! Several officials discussed that the marginal effects of QE were diminishing and thus, tapering should begin.

The Fed minutes for December’s policy meeting are finally out! Several officials discussed that the marginal effects of QE were diminishing and thus, tapering should begin. We can expect to see a continuation in the reduction of QE in measured steps. Based on the minutes, majority of Fed officials foresee the wind down to be completed by the second half of 2014. Some officials expressed concern over the low inflation rate (since it is below the Fed’s 2% target)  and the low labor participation rate. Hence, not all officials were in favor of minimizing the bond buying program due to these factors. So far, we have seen positive economic data. The 238,000 jobs added to the private sector is at its highest point since Dec 2012. Economists expect Friday’s payroll numbers to be very good based on Wednesday’s strong data. The consensus forecast is that 203,000 nonfarm payrolls were added for the month of December, which is greater than the 196,000 jobs added in the month of November. The prospects for tomorrow’s numbers look very positive, but what if we see a poor NonFarm Payrolls report? This would indeed raise investor eyebrows about the Fed’s next move and perhaps they would consider putting the wind down program on pause. The strength of the USD and strong economic data is not favorable for AU. When investors see the dollar holding strong and the economy performing up to expectations, they  don’t see a need to flee to a safe haven asset, plain and simple as that! Have a great day.

Today is the first full trading week of 2014!

Today is the first full trading week of 2014! We have seen gold rally for the last couple of days, but can the shiny yellow metal sustain its rally? As we are approaching closer to the Chinese New Year, we expect to see an increase in demand for physical gold. Gold is often exchanged for gift giving amongst the Chinese as they enter the year of the horse. It is said that individuals born during the year of the horse are clever, cheerful, stubborn, and have great communication skills. The year of the horse represents good health and is the year for individuals to make the most out of opportunities given to them.  China surpassed India as the largest gold consumer for 2013. It should be interesting to see what direction gold takes once the Fed minutes come out on Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payrolls data is released on Friday. These numbers will give investors a signal about the pace of the economic recovery and how aggressive investors can expect the Fed to be with tapering. Have a great day!

First day back in the office after the New Year! Roads were pretty crowded this morning as everyone’s vacation has come to an end and children are back to school!

Good Morning,

First day back in the office after the New Year! Roads were pretty crowded this morning as everyone’s vacation has come to an end and children are back to school! It’s great to start the first trading day of the year with the metals trading on the upside. Gold is trading higher this morning due to physical buying from the Chinese markets. It’s nice to see gold trading above 1200, but investors still remain bearish due to an improving economy and the Fed scaling back its asset purchase program. We expect gold to see some temporary support during this time until we hear new information pertaining to monetary policy. We saw a jump in PT this morning due to shorts exiting their position. Jobless Claims for the week ending 12/28 are down 2,000 with a figure of 339,000 vs. previous claims of 341,000. Have a great day everyone!