Gold saw some pressure last week

Gold saw some pressure last week, however it has mustered a strong rebound early this week. The yellow metal has managed to gain back 72% of the value lost last Tuesday and Wednesday. If we see gold follow its strong close yesterday above $1659 it should signal some decent support in the mid 1650’s. Technically yesterday’s close at $1664.80 was quite bullish. Should we see the metal close above this level again today, it would be likely to test the 100 DMA (1686.60). Tomorrow we get the US PPI #’s and the initial jobless claims, this may cause some movement in the metals market. Until then it should be relatively quiet.

Metals	Last	%Change	Low	High
Au-Jun	1660.3	-0.04%	1653.5	1663.9
Pt-Jul	1590.9	-0.13%	1583.7	1607.8
Pd-Jun	636.1	-0.02%	632.50	645.00
Ag-May	31.560	-0.38%	31.370	31.820
London	AM	PM	Minor	PGMs
Au	1654	1658	Rh	1375
Pt	1596	1590	Ru	115
Pd	637	637	Ir	1100
Ag	31.7	DJI	12830.37	114.44
Currencies
	USD	EUR	JPY	GBP
USD	0	1.3114	0.012343	1.5912
EUR	0.7625	0	0.94124	1.2133
JPY	81.01	106.24	0	128.91
GBP	0.6285	0.82414	0.7758	0
Crude Brent	120.48	Comex Copper	364.7
Crude WTI	102.76	Nat Gas	2.003
*THESE PRICES ARE FOR INDICATION ONLY CALL FOR QUOTES

While last week was a short week for most trading desks

While last week was a short week for most trading desks it contained some interesting and market moving news. The US NFP reported on Friday was significantly weaker than expected with the number coming in at gain of 120K jobs against an expectation of 205K. The previous report was quite strong with a revised gain of 240K jobs. The 50% drop in the NFP # this month is not to be over looked as it has reminded investors and traders that recovery in the world’s largest economy will not be as rapid as many have suspected. In addition, the content of Fed’s meeting minutes released earlier last week quenched rumors of further quantitative easing. With both of these factors in mind the precious metals have been trading in a very choppy manner over the last four sessions.

Gold has ranged from a high of $1670 to a low of $1613. The initial selloff came as a reaction to the Fed minutes with gold losing more than $50 in 2 sessions. It has since managed to retrace some of its losses on short covering into the long weekend and the weak NFP data. Silver has reacted in the same manner trading in a range between $31 and $33. Both metals will continue to trade in such a manner as investors rebalance positions and revise their outlook of economic growth and inflationary pressures in the near term.

The PGM’s have been relatively strong during the last 2 sessions, despite a selloff in the broader commodities complex. Many investors have reduced their bullish positions in the commodities sector as the Fed signaled it that further monetary stimulus is unlikely. Platinum and palladium initially suffered losses as did gold and silver, however they have managed to rebound well. The main concern going forward in the industrial precious metals markets will be the growth of the Chinese economy. While it has been forecasted to shrink significantly from last year’s 9.2% growth rate, some still remain quite bullish on the growth of world largest metals consumer. The outlook for all the precious metals remain bullish in the long term , however many are forecasting near term weakness as larger players in the metals markets rebalance their portfolios to take into account the recent developments in “Fedspeak” and the US economy.

Good Luck.

Metals	Last	%Change	Low	High
Au-Jun	1645.7	0.96%	1636.7	1649.9
Pt-Jul	1618.3	0.67%	1611.3	1627
Pd-Jun	644	0.02%	640.70	653.00
Ag-May	31.550	-0.58%	31.310	32.100
London	AM	PM	Minor	PGMs
Au	1622.5	1631	Rh	1400
Pt	1605	1592	Ru	120
Pd	640	635	Ir	1100
Ag	31.27	DJI	12940.68	-119.46
Currencies
	USD	EUR	JPY	GBP
USD	0	1.3125	0.012257	1.5899
EUR	0.762	0	0.93389	1.2114
JPY	81.59	107.08	0	129.714
GBP	0.629	0.82548	0.7709	0
Crude Brent	121.84	Comex Copper	371.95
Crude WTI	101.59	Nat Gas	2.09
*THESE PRICES ARE FOR INDICATION ONLY CALL FOR QUOTES

The global economy have taken a wrong turn

The global economy have taken a wrong turn in the last two months with data out of China, Europe, and US all pointing to the same slowdown. Construction spending in the US dropped 1.1% and 0.8% in Feb and Jan(revised from down 0.1%). The Euro zone unemployment rose to highest in more than a decade and manufacturing contracted for an 8^th month. Austerity plans will hurt the economies of Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy further as GDP will contract further. High unemployment rates will bring civil and political uncertainty and disrupt economies and financial markets. The China PMI jumped to an 11 month high of 53.1 in March but a separate HSBC PMI showed contraction in March of 48.3 from a Feb figure of 49.6. The data out of China have been mixed but economists all agree that more government intervention is coming in the near future. Commodities are mostly higher this morning on fresh buying to start the second quarter. The rise in precious metals can be interpreted as a sign that traders believe QE3, China lowering interest rates and bank reserve requirements, and/or ECB lowering rates and continuing growth of the European financial stability facility in the coming quarter. We believe that the precious metals will move higher until the Fed meeting at the end of the month. The focus will continue to be on Europe and China in the coming weeks.

Metals	Last	%Change	Low	High
Au-Jun	1684.1	0.73%	1664.4	1685.4
Pt-Jul	1658	0.83%	1640.5	1658.2
Pd-Jun	662.1	1.33%	651.50	666.10
Ag-May	33.200	2.20%	32.340	33.250
London	AM	PM	Minor	PGMs
Au	1664	1677.5	Rh	1400
Pt	1636	1641	Ru	120
Pd	656	656	Ir	1100
Ag	32.42	DJI	13272.81	60.77
Currencies
	USD	EUR	JPY	GBP
USD	0	1.3325	0.012171	1.6021
EUR	0.7506	0	0.91343	1.2024
JPY	82.16	109.48	0	131.631
GBP	0.6242	0.83171	0.7597	0
Crude Brent	124.43	Comex Copper	392.3
Crude WTI	104.25	Nat Gas	2.101
*THESE PRICES ARE FOR INDICATION ONLY CALL FOR QUOTES