Commodities rallied yesterday on Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech in which he said accommodative monetary policy is still needed to spur employment. Traders quickly interpreted this as the resurrection of QE3 thus ending speculation of higher interest rates by year end, as suggested by some economists. We believe that Bernanke might be taking a page out of Former Chairman Greenspan’s play book by talking down short term interest. The problem with the Greenspan’s approach is that Bernanke lacks the Wall Street credibility so he won’t get the desired effects as when Greenspan “talked” up the dollar. Our research suggests that QE3 is probably not on the horizon unless economic data worsens significantly in the US or around the world. The S&P Case Shiller home price data this morning didn’t give us any new insight about the slowly recovering US housing market. The commodities and equities will most likely move higher in the short term as markets await more data to confirm the global economic health. We would be cautiously long in gold and silver ahead of the quarter end and hold a flat position in the industrial metals due to headline economic risks out of China and Europe.
| Metals | Last | %Change | Low | High |
| Au- Jun | 1695.2 | 0.41% | 1686.5 | 1698.6 |
| Pt-Jul | 1665.7 | 0.91% | 1652.0 | 1671.8 |
| Pd-Jun | 668.05 | -0.15% | 666.00 | 674.05 |
| Ag-May | 32.990 | 0.73% | 32.725 | 33.190 |
| London | AM | PM | Minor | PGMs |
| Au | 1694 | - | Rh | 1450 |
| Pt | 1661 | 1662 | Ru | 120 |
| Pd | 669 | 667 | Ir | 1100 |
| Ag | 33.01 | DJI | 13241.63 | 160.9 |
| Currencies |
|
|
| |
|
| USD | EUR | JPY | GBP |
| USD | 0 | 1.3342 | 0.012024 | 1.5986 |
| EUR | 0.7494 | 0 | 0.90118 | 1.1981 |
| JPY | 83.16 | 110.96 | 0 | 132.945 |
| GBP | 0.6256 | 0.83467 | 0.7522 | 0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Crude Brent | 125.62 | Comex Copper | 388.8 |
|
| Crude WTI | 107.24 | Nat Gas | 2.196 |
|
| *THESE PRICES ARE FOR INDICATION ONLY CALL FOR QUOTES |
| |||
No comments:
Post a Comment