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Friday, April 27, 2012

During the last three sessions we have seen an gold make an interesting move

During the last three sessions we have seen an gold make an interesting move. It has traded from a low of $1625  to a high of $1662. The sell off yesterday came on the back of the release of Fed minutes, however the initial losses were entirely retraced by the end of the session. The “fed-speak” reiterated that they would continue to keep short term rates low until late 2014 in order to offer continued support for economic growth. While traders were looking for a hints of the extension of operation twist or another round of QE to help gold regain its bullish accent, it seems that the prospect of low rates coupled with the ongoing Euro zone debt issues has help to move it to the upside. In addition, the higher than expected jobless claims helped put a bid under the market today. At the moment gold is trading slightly below a down trend line at $1663.90. Today’s move gave gold bulls the hope that this trade will not go down without a fight. Should gold trade through and close above the resistance near $1664 tomorrow, we will most likely see a move back to the $1685 -$1700 range.  From a bears perspective, there are significant technical signals that this upside move may just be a short term trend.  The charts show a bearish pennant formation which may result in a selloff in the yellow metal.  If this selloff is extended beyond a few sessions we will see the 50DMA cross below the 100DMA once again.  This is an incredibly bearish signal is known to technicians as the “death cross.”  Today we have US GDP and consumer confidence #’s coming out, which could cause moves in the metals markets.

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